Monday, September 28, 2020

On communal harmony

The concept of communal harmony, the internal peace of a nation, is a unique and important feature of Systems' Approach astrology in the mundane sphere.

In the life of a nation, either the domestic affairs tend to be harmonious, such that the population is contented, or there is something that disturbs the peace, with conflict weighing on the citizens.

The national horoscope reveals the overall situation, based the condition of several astrological indicators. Even then, the evolving periods and transits can bring peace or turmoil.

Communal disharmony
A political revolution, to right many wrongs, began in the USA with the election of Donald Trump in 2016. The mega corporations, that have for decades benefited from the "China trade" while immiserising millions of American workers, immediately reacted by using their media corporations to delegitimise Trump and remove from him from power post haste. The Democrats, reeling from the 2016 loss at the ballot box, have refrained from reforming themselves and have chosen as their leader, Joe Biden, who is alleged for decades to have made his family members rich by enabling crony capitalism. The Democratic leaders in the House, like Nancy Pelosy and Adam Schiff, have been eager participants in the US corporations scheme to nullify the 2016 election. Meanwhile, President Trump, while in business, is alleged to have avoided paying his fair share of taxes and misrepresented the size of his business. The political turmoil has sharply divided the nation.

Things came to a head in 2019, when the USA went through several events that disturbed the communal harmony, including a border crisis, the publication of the Mueller report and the impeachment of President Trump. All of these developments disrupted the communal harmony, and indeed there were protests and a lot of anger over the treatment of illegal immigrants at the border.

In early February 2020, President Trump was acquitted of the impeachment charges. However, he was immediately caught up dealing with in the Covid-19 pandemic from China. In March, the disease quickly reached pandemic levels, and began to paralyse the economy as millions of people were thrown out of work. The majority of people followed guidelines to self isolate. After weeks of this, tensions were building up.

In an election year, the Democrats sought to undermine Trump's legitimacy and popularity, criticising his handling of the crisis. However, it was the shocking broadcast of the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis in late May 2020, that unleashed a torrent of rage on the streets of America, that has only recently begun to subside. Young people refused to accept further cop killings of black people.

Below these developments are explained in terms of the astrological indications seen in the national horoscope for the USA, the SAMVA USA chart.

Astrology of communal harmony
The astrology of communal harmony involves mainly three houses and their lords in the horoscope. The most important is the 4th house, traditionally linked to the soothing embrace of the mother. 
 The 6th house is linked to opposition due to e.g. unyielding views or non-payment of debts, and the 2nd house is linked to close relations and wealth.

SAMVA USA horoscope
In the USA national horoscope, the 4th and 6th houses are seen to be vulnerable. Indeed, these have been strongly affected in recent years, especially in 2019 and 2020.
"Venus rules the 4th house whose indications include "nation's natural resources, agriculture, mines, minerals, the land, landed properties, peace, general and political stability, natural calamities, educational institutions, law and order, housing and communal harmony."
"Jupiter rules the 6th house, whose indications include public amity, relations with neighbors, general health of the public, political stability, financial solvency of the nation, management of debts, litigations, judicial functioning, communal harmony in the country and labor relations." 
A sequence of sub-periods of functional malefic planets.
  • June 10, 2017 - May 5, 2018: Sun - Rahu
  • May 5, 2018 - February 21, 2019: Sun - Jupiter
  • February 21, 2019 - February 3, 2020: Sun - Saturn
  • February 3, 2020 - December 10, 2020: Sun - Mercury
  • December 10, 2020 - April 16, 2021: Sun - Ketu
Transits of slow-moving malefic planets in the 6th house.
  • January 27, 2017 - January 24, 2020: transit 8th lord Saturn in Sagittarius and 6th house.
  • March 23, 2019 - September 19, 2020: transit FM Ketu in Sagittarius and 6th house.
  • November 4, 2019 - November 19, 2020: transit 6th lord Jupiter in Sagittarius and 6th house.
In addition to this combination of sub-periods of malefic planets and their transits in the bad 6th house, there were conjunctions of the malefic planets there, but also with the most effective part (MEP) of the house at 20° 00' Sagittarius, and 4th lord Venus placed at 23° 50' Sagittarius and 6th house MEP.

Again, the 4th lord Venus is important for the sense of well being in the nation. As Venus is badly placed in the 6th house, the nation is very sensitive to conflict. The Vietnam War protests of the late 1960s and early 1970s, and the Iraq War protests in the early 2000s, are cases in point.

The 20° Cancer rising SAMVA USA horoscope is shown above with the transits set for December 25, 2019. At the time, the Covid-19 pandemic is said to have reached the USA, while the US Congress was busy preparing for the Impeachment Trial of Donald Trump in the Senate. Three functional malefic planets, along with some faster moving functional benefic planets, were in the 6th house. All were weak by bad placement, except Jupiter, which owns Sagittarius and hence the 6th house.

The recent experience
The past few years have been burdensome, because of the political fight in the USA which has become the most brutal one in living memory. As such, the Mueller investigation and impeachment were major events disturbing the national psyche in 2019 and into early 2020. These events were followed by the deadly and highly contagious Covid-19 pandemic and deep recession that followed and unsettled the mental peace of Americans in 2020. These events are easily explained by the sub-period of 8th lord Saturn, its transit in Sagittarius and the 6th house of the SAMVA USA chart, accompanied by Ketu, and then 6th lord Jupiter. However, let's look at other more specific expressions of the disturbing energy in the national life in these two years.

Uproar over family separations:
Transit Ketu became stationary at around 24° Sagittarius, 
where it was conjunct Venus as 4th lord in the 6th house of the SAMVA USA chart, from May to August 2019. This transit was associated with the border crisis (4th house) involving disadvantaged people (Ketu) trying to get into the USA. Family "separations" (Ketu) became a major flash point. 

Fight over the Wall: In his campaign, Trump promised to build a wall on the southern border. When transit 8th lord Saturn became conjunct 4th lord Venus the border crisis also involved a battle over building the "wall" (Saturn). Such a wall will serve as an "obstacle or end" (8th house) to the inflows. During the summer of 2019, the President seemed powerless (Ketu) to gain control of the situation. In the fall, he got the funds to build the wall and reached an agreement with the Mexican government to put 26,000 troops on the border. The crisis then began to abate. These developments served to disturb the communal harmony (4th lord, 6th house).

Anti-racism/anti-capitalism riots: During the summer and fall of 2020, transit 6th lord Jupiter has been conjunct 4th lord Venus. It has involved young people (Jupiter) who are aligned with the political opposition (6th lord/6th house) that are disturbing the communal harmony (4th lord) with protests that tend to get out of hand and involve some violence but more the destruction of property (4th house).

Multivalence of indications
When making predictions, we can mention the many possibilities, based on a reading of the indications affected. However, it all becomes so much clearer after the fact.

Conclusion
These developments are strongly reaffirming the SAMVA USA chart.

Tuesday, September 22, 2020

Currency strength revisited

In March of 2010, the issue of currency strength was explored on this blog with reference to what a Systems' Approach astrology reading of the 20° Cancer rising SAMVA USA chart and the UK 16° Virgo rising charts indicated. A prediction was made that the US dollar would appreciate (or strengthen) relative to the British pound from April 2016, when the Sun major period in the SAMVA USA chart began. Almost five years into this period, we can say that this prediction has been realised, given the nominal 20 percent appreciation in the value of the dollar over the pound since April 2016. This appreciation holds true with respect to the three prior major periods of Mercury, Ketu and Venus, for which data is available. Moreover, despite threats made or implied about the role of the dollar as an international reserve currency in 2009, it has continued, also as predicted. These predictions offer yet more stunning evidence for SA astrology and the national charts.

Let's revisit the thesis of the late great Indian astrologer and author, Vinod Kumar Choudhry, about currency strength:

“It is the power of the state which is shown through the strength of the currency. The authority is first vested in the Sun and then in the Moon. The good financial strength of the nation/wealth is seen through the second house and the regular flow of income is seen through the eleventh house. Taken all these four together they show the real strength of the currency of a particular country.”
Indeed, the Sun as 2nd lord becomes a dual indicator of currency strength for the USA. With the Sun on the most effective point (MEP) of the 7th house of foreign agreements, relations and policy, the US state and its leader, are very powerful. This has been seen most vividly in the first (?) term of President Trump. As the Sun receives the aspect, but not severely, from 8th lord Saturn in Scorpio and 5th house, easy gains may be realised, but also obstacles and endings. Meanwhile, Rahu aspects the 2nd house (non-severly), suggesting that manipulations concerning trade influence currency value. This has been seen as early in the War of 1812 and as recently in the efforts to gain competitive devaluations against the dollar to boost trade at US expense. At the same time, we should keep in mind, as shown in the earlier article, From Weakness to Strength, that other factors, involving US legislation in the area of Free Trade, have manufactured a trade deficit for decades, which even the weakness of the dollar was unable to correct. The other indicator of currency strength, 1st lord Moon is exalted in Taurus  and 1th house, is also a dual indicator of currency strength. Indeed, the incomes of Americans are high and this supports the economy, and the confidence of foreigners in the US Dollar. Indeed, the above noted placements suggest that the USA enjoys a very strong currency.

Ten years ago, in the article Currency strength, the following prediction was made. At that time the US dollar : GB pound exchange rate  was at 1.50. Today, it is at 1.28. So, the dollar has appreciated (strengthened) viz-a-viz the pound, but that is not the whole story. But first, let's revisit the 2010 prediction.
Recent and future developments
Following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s, the dollar has continued to gain on the Pound. While there has been volatility, reflecting the period and transit influences in both charts, the trend line has clearly been lower, such that those buying a pound with dollars now pay less than they did some forty years ago. Moreover, while there have been concerns about the long term viability of the dollar, given the debt of the US government and during the recent adverse planetary periods, it is expected that when the Sun major period rolls around in 2016, the integrity of the US dollar will be boosted. In the interim period, given the even more adverse major period of Mars in the UK horoscope until 2012, the UK pound may experience a further trend decline relative to the US dollar.

The data point suggests the prediction has proved accurate, but it is not enough. As the graph below shows, the average value during the respective planetary major periods offers an even more convincing confirmation of the prediction. However, we should also consider the bigger picture.

Additional factors
The strength should not be interpreted too narrowly, in terms of the ever greater appreciation of the exchange rate, as currency value cuts both ways.
  • If too strong, a currency chokes off exports and expands imports, undermining the balance of payments, which tends to depreciate the currency exchange rate over time. 
  • If too weak, exports expand strongly but imports are throttled down, creating a surplus on the balance of payments, which tends to appreciate the exchange rate. 
A broader, complementary perspective
Moreover, the following statement by Dutch economist Willem Buiter, recently the Chief Economist at Citigroup in New York City, is of interest with regard to the US dollar's role as an international reserve currency.
"Global demand for the US dollar – which remains the world’s only serious reserve currency – is robust enough to prevent a sharp, destabilizing currency depreciation."     -- Willem Buiter, 9/21/2020
The legitimacy and acceptability of a currency in foreign exchange markets are also elements that affect the strength of a currency, and these would tend to be associated with greater long run balance in the international payments. 

Indeed, the US has an international reserve currency and can borrow from foreigners in its own currency, which suggests it is an exceptionally strong currency, even if its value at any given time may fluctuate.

Foreign trade is indicated by the 10th house, which is afflicted by Rahu, but its lord, Mars is strong in Scorpio and 5th house, where it receives an aspect from 1st lord Moon. The foreign trade may be influenced by manipulations and vested interests, but it is not a burden on the national economy. Hence, there is the pheonomenon of "benign neglect" by US policy makers when it comes to the exchange rate value of the US dollar. Not surprisingly, in the Sun major period, President Trump objected to other countries attempting to obtain "competitive devaluations" of their currencies, in order to get their moribund economies to grow through exports to the USA. This applied to Japan and the EU, but also China, which, as a BOP surplus nation, has tried to prevent the appreciation of the juan by pegging it to the US dollar and buying long dated US government securities.

A related prediction
In September 2009, another prediction was made with regard to the dollar's role as an international reserve currency:
"During 2009, the Russian and Chinese governments have publicly expressed grave concerns about risks to the international financial system from the issuance of enormous debt by the US government to shore up its financial system. In particular, the role of the US dollar as an international currency has been questioned. The Russians and Chinese have also suggested the creation of a truly global currency is needed to reduce risks and share more evenly the benefits of an international currency. Problems with regard to the debt of the US government have earlier been foreseen on the basis of the SAMVA USA chart (Perpetual Union). It has been suggested that while the situation is likely to place strains on e.g. the President of the USA, the dollar, interest rates on the debt and concerns for inflation, the situation will remain manageable."
Indeed, despite threats made or implied, the dollar has sailed through the recent turbulent decade with its role as an international reserve currency intact - as predicted.

The evidence
We can now compare the currency strength of the dollar and pound across a longer period, and then examine its value during individual major periods in the SAMVA USA chart. We find that in the 1981 - 2020 period, the average value is 1.60 USD for 1 GBP. In the respective planetary periods, the average during the Mercury period was 1.61; 1.64 in the Ketu period, 1.65 in the Venus period, and then 1.30 in the Sun period. This is a rather stunning finding, as it includes all the shorter run influences involving sub-periods and transits of slow moving planets.

Conclusion
During the Sun major period, the US dollar has been over 20 percent stronger than in the two previous major periods of Ketu and Venus and 19 percent stronger than in the Mercury period. This is significant statistical and scientific evidence in support of Professor Choudhry's astrological theory and what has been predicted based on the USA and UK charts. The other features involving currency strength are also in evidence, as the quote by the respected international economist, Dr. Buiter indicates.

Thursday, September 17, 2020

From weakness to strength

The history of the USA in the past half century, or since the 1970s, has exhibited gradual changes in the economic, social and political life. Three salient, interrelated and unfolding trends have taken place in the economic life that explain the social and political development since. These changes have been identified in relation to predictions made for the USA based on the national horoscope for the country discovered in 2006. Indeed, during the Sun major period since 2016, far from being a straight-forward improvement in the national life, the predicted change has been unfolding with fierce resistance from powerful social forces, such as the corporations profiting from the trade imbalances that cause the inequality. Nevertheless, the change to fairer policies is taking hold. With or without Trump they are likely to continue in coming years.

Corporate Socialism

In the past half century, the US has developed a system of Corporate Socialism. The pivot was the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980, although the stage was set by Nixon's visit to China in 1972, in order to open up trade. The ensuing imbalances in trade, income distribution and financial markets (see graphs below) resulted in the significant socio-political upheaval we have witnessed at a growing pace throughout the past decade, from the Tea Party movements criticism of out of control government spending in 2009, the Occupy Wall Street protests of 2011 and the 2016 election of Donald Trump.

In 1976 Richard Barnet and Ronald Muller wrote their influential book Global Reach: The Power of the Multinational Corporations, documenting the spread of US firms to the rest of the world, searching out low wage areas to build turnkey manufacturing operations. In order to import cheaper goods into the USA, the companies outsourced millions of well paying American jobs abroad. After China opened up in 1978, these companies went increasingly to China and the "China trade" was born. 

As the US exported less and imported more, an unstoppable trade deficit opened up from the 1980s. 

 

Further, the trade deficit was associated with increasing corporate profits from the China trade, which saw the stock market rise ever higher, turning millionaires into billionaires.









Meanwhile, the China trade also resulted in the loss of well paying jobs, that made poverty increase sharply in the USA. One measure of the growing inequality is the Gini-coefficient. 

Open borders added to the pain, by exposing millions of households to the incessant flow of crime, drugs and social chaos across the US-Mexico border. Movies like No Country for Old Men and Sicario have documented the devastating conditions in US border communities and many inner cities. Trump was correct to Build the Wall, as promised, even if the Democrats have thrown every trick in the book at him to stop it. His push to end the trade imbalances with China and Mexico (and Canada) has also made progress, despite the Democrat opposition. Indeed, the lowest wages in the USA have been rising the fastest in recent years.

The economics profession and academia and the coastal elites they have served, were slow to grasp this phenomena. Some quip they are paid not to understand it. If it were not for the 1994 masterful expose of Ravi Batra, Professor of Economics at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, TX, we would likely still be in the dark about the immiserising effects of the China trade on American workers. Importantly, these fundamental economic developments explain why Trump entered the political fray and has unleashed a veritable revolution on the cozy corporate arrangements.

Link to astrology
In May 1998, I made the acquaintance of my late astrology mentor Vinod Kumar Choudhry, or Professor Choudhry as we affectionately and respectfully called him on the SA discussion lists. After learning the Systems' Approach from him, I founded SAMVA list in November 2000 in order to search for an authentic horoscope for the USA as well as other countries. It was on December 30, 2006, that I discovered, with the research assistance from the late historical scholar, John Thomas Wyder Battalana, the 1781 event underlying the SAMVA USA chart

With the help of Professor Choudhry, I went on to carefully bring out the indications of the chart against what we know about the national entity of the USA. In the years that followed, and as this blog attests to, the chart was tested against the innumerable significant events in the countries history, as well as the long term historical dynamics, or trends. At the same time, the effort was made to perform many and successful predictions against it. 

It was in early 2008 that I discovered what was likely to become a major transformative trend change in the life of the country. It involved the ending of the weak Venus period and the commencement of a strong Sun period in April 2016, which was expected to unleash a much more vigorous phase in the life of the country. I wrote several articles about it.

Competitive capitalism
In June 2015, a candidate, Donald Trump, arrived on the US stage with a Presidential platform embodying the predicted transformation. While his platform isn't perfect, it has begun, as promised, to address the trade and income distribution issues. Understandably, the US corporations didn't like it. As they own the media corporations, like CNN, New York Times, Washington Post, MSNBC, The Atlantic, etc., they were brought into action to fiercely resist Trump and stop his reforms. Deep State actors were called into action, resulting in the hapless Mueller investigation and subsequent Impeachment drive. Even Hollywood actors, who benefit by Chinese investments in film and music projects, have along with the corporations, media and Democrats, come out angrily out against Trump. As explained in the previous article, the ire is directed mostly at Trump's actions as a man, and rarely his policies.

The mega corporations have been used to getting their way, through a highly lucrative system of political corruption, whereby they pay into political coffers in return for laws and regulations that allow them to make ever greater profits. The Democrats -- actually the entire political establishment before Trump purged most RINOs out of the GOP -- had perfected a system, where they would smooth out the rough edges of the capitalist system by taxing higher incomes and giving out government handouts to the poorest. More recently, there have even been allegations that Joe Biden compromised US national interests in return for financial wealth from China for Biden family members. In any event, theirs is a system of Corporate Socialism.

Trump, however, sees it differently, he wants to retain capitalism but cut down its excesses by focusing on restoring American workers, millions of whom have sunk into squalor and poverty, to their prior middle class position. If he is successful, the need for tax and spend policies is less, and a more competitive economy will deliver more benefits to more people.

Trump's revolution has just started. If he gets reelected, more needs to be done to reduce the yawning inequality and ridiculous profits of the huge companies, which keep the financial markets at lofty levels. As any financial bubble is doomed to burst, the Trumpean economy is possibly coasting on false prosperity. Likely, Trump hopes to unwind the financial imbalances by breaking up the monopolies, and by generating more competition in his second term. While he hasn't talked much about it, we can infer that from the DOJ investigations into the monopolistic practices of the tech behemoths.

That said, there is much more to the history of any country than a single man, even the leader. Indeed, the national horoscope shows many other things going on, besides what we can infer from the major periods, such as the important but fleeting sub-periods and transits. 

Conclusion
A signal change has taken place. America, like a big super-tanker, is slowly changing course. As Trump has declared, the US is confidently asserting its influence in world affairs, to strengthen justice, peace and freedom. Optimism and strength are replacing pessimism and weakness in its foreign policy. A culture of identity and victimhood, that developed in the drive for a borderless global state, during the Venus major period, is being replaced by an emphasis on Americans as one people and winners. The new zeitgeist is emerging as the Sun major period advances. Indeed, while tumult is likely to characterise the US until Spring of 2021, the main trend is in operation and as time passes, the associated transformative changes will become more readily apparent and accepted, just like the imbalances that caused them.