Currency strength revisited

In March of 2010, the issue of currency strength was explored on this blog with reference to what a Systems' Approach astrology reading of the 20° Cancer rising SAMVA USA chart and the UK 16° Virgo rising charts indicated. A prediction was made that the US dollar would appreciate (or strengthen) relative to the British pound from April 2016, when the Sun major period in the SAMVA USA chart began. Almost five years into this period, we can say that this prediction has been realised, given the nominal 20 percent appreciation in the value of the dollar over the pound since April 2016. This appreciation holds true with respect to the three prior major periods of Mercury, Ketu and Venus, for which data is available. Moreover, despite threats made or implied about the role of the dollar as an international reserve currency in 2009, it has continued, also as predicted. These predictions offer yet more stunning evidence for SA astrology and the national charts.

Let's revisit the thesis of the late great Indian astrologer and author, Vinod Kumar Choudhry, about currency strength:

“It is the power of the state which is shown through the strength of the currency. The authority is first vested in the Sun and then in the Moon. The good financial strength of the nation/wealth is seen through the second house and the regular flow of income is seen through the eleventh house. Taken all these four together they show the real strength of the currency of a particular country.”

Indeed, the Sun as 2nd lord becomes a dual indicator of currency strength for the USA. With the Sun on the most effective point (MEP) of the 7th house of foreign agreements, relations and policy, the US state and its leader, are very powerful. This has been seen most vividly in the first (?) term of President Trump. As the Sun receives the aspect, but not severely, from 8th lord Saturn in Scorpio and 5th house, easy gains may be realised, but also obstacles and endings. Meanwhile, Rahu aspects the 2nd house (non-severly), suggesting that manipulations concerning trade influence currency value. This has been seen as early in the War of 1812 and as recently in the efforts to gain competitive devaluations against the dollar to boost trade at US expense. At the same time, we should keep in mind, as shown in the earlier article, From Weakness to Strength, that other factors, involving US legislation in the area of Free Trade, have manufactured a trade deficit for decades, which even the weakness of the dollar was unable to correct. The other indicator of currency strength, 1st lord Moon is exalted in Taurus  and 1th house, is also a dual indicator of currency strength. Indeed, the incomes of Americans are high and this supports the economy, and the confidence of foreigners in the US Dollar. Indeed, the above noted placements suggest that the USA enjoys a very strong currency.

Ten years ago, in the article Currency strength, the following prediction was made. At that time the US dollar : GB pound exchange rate  was at 1.50. Today, it is at 1.28. So, the dollar has appreciated (strengthened) viz-a-viz the pound, but that is not the whole story. But first, let's revisit the 2010 prediction.

Recent and future developments

Following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s, the dollar has continued to gain on the Pound. While there has been volatility, reflecting the period and transit influences in both charts, the trend line has clearly been lower, such that those buying a pound with dollars now pay less than they did some forty years ago. Moreover, while there have been concerns about the long term viability of the dollar, given the debt of the US government and during the recent adverse planetary periods, it is expected that when the Sun major period rolls around in 2016, the integrity of the US dollar will be boosted. In the interim period, given the even more adverse major period of Mars in the UK horoscope until 2012, the UK pound may experience a further trend decline relative to the US dollar.

The data point suggests the prediction has proved accurate, but it is not enough. As the graph below shows, the average value during the respective planetary major periods offers an even more convincing confirmation of the prediction. However, we should also consider the bigger picture.

Additional factors

The strength should not be interpreted too narrowly, in terms of the ever greater appreciation of the exchange rate, as currency value cuts both ways.

• If too strong, a currency chokes off exports and expands imports, undermining the balance of payments, which tends to depreciate the currency exchange rate over time. 
• If too weak, exports expand strongly but imports are throttled down, creating a surplus on the balance of payments, which tends to appreciate the exchange rate. 

A broader, complementary perspective

Moreover, the following statement by Dutch economist Willem Buiter, recently the Chief Economist at Citigroup in New York City, is of interest with regard to the US dollar's role as an international reserve currency.

"Global demand for the US dollar – which remains the world’s only serious reserve currency – is robust enough to prevent a sharp, destabilizing currency depreciation."     -- Willem Buiter, 9/21/2020

The legitimacy and acceptability of a currency in foreign exchange markets are also elements that affect the strength of a currency, and these would tend to be associated with greater long run balance in the international payments. 

Indeed, the US has an international reserve currency and can borrow from foreigners in its own currency, which suggests it is an exceptionally strong currency, even if its value at any given time may fluctuate.

Foreign trade is indicated by the 10th house, which is afflicted by Rahu, but its lord, Mars is strong in Scorpio and 5th house, where it receives an aspect from 1st lord Moon. The foreign trade may be influenced by manipulations and vested interests, but it is not a burden on the national economy. Hence, there is the pheonomenon of "benign neglect" by US policy makers when it comes to the exchange rate value of the US dollar. Not surprisingly, in the Sun major period, President Trump objected to other countries attempting to obtain "competitive devaluations" of their currencies, in order to get their moribund economies to grow through exports to the USA. This applied to Japan and the EU, but also China, which, as a BOP surplus nation, has tried to prevent the appreciation of the juan by pegging it to the US dollar and buying long dated US government securities.

A related prediction

In September 2009, another prediction was made with regard to the dollar's role as an international reserve currency:

"During 2009, the Russian and Chinese governments have publicly expressed grave concerns about risks to the international financial system from the issuance of enormous debt by the US government to shore up its financial system. In particular, the role of the US dollar as an international currency has been questioned. The Russians and Chinese have also suggested the creation of a truly global currency is needed to reduce risks and share more evenly the benefits of an international currency. Problems with regard to the debt of the US government have earlier been foreseen on the basis of the SAMVA USA chart (Perpetual Union). It has been suggested that while the situation is likely to place strains on e.g. the President of the USA, the dollar, interest rates on the debt and concerns for inflation, the situation will remain manageable."

Indeed, despite threats made or implied, the dollar has sailed through the recent turbulent decade with its role as an international reserve currency intact - as predicted.

The evidence

We can now compare the currency strength of the dollar and pound across a longer period, and then examine its value during individual major periods in the SAMVA USA chart. We find that in the 1981 - 2020 period, the average value is 1.60 USD for 1 GBP. In the respective planetary periods, the average during the Mercury period was 1.61; 1.64 in the Ketu period, 1.65 in the Venus period, and then 1.30 in the Sun period. This is a rather stunning finding, as it includes all the shorter run influences involving sub-periods and transits of slow moving planets.

Conclusion

During the Sun major period, the US dollar has been over 20 percent stronger than in the two previous major periods of Ketu and Venus and 19 percent stronger than in the Mercury period. This is significant statistical and scientific evidence in support of Professor Choudhry's astrological theory and what has been predicted based on the USA and UK charts. The other features involving currency strength are also in evidence, as the quote by the respected international economist, Dr. Buiter indicates.