Showing posts with label War. Show all posts
Showing posts with label War. Show all posts

Sunday, November 5, 2023

Dangerous Russia

A year ago, Russia's President, Vladimir Putin, began to alarm the world with his statements threatening nuclear war. After months of massing troops on the Ukraine border, Putin ordered his military to invade on February 24, 2022.

The West has been helping Ukraine escape Russia's orbit. Certainly, the majority of the citizens in the western and central part of Ukraine want to turn towards the West, while views in the east may be more mixed. Putin is angry that the US-led military assistance to Ukraine, which is fighting to reclaim occupied territories, thwarting his goal of restoring Russia as a power to be reckoned with in the world.

Not surprisingly, the western world increasingly sees Russia as a threat to world peace.

"Over 70% of global citizens see Russia as a threat to the world after more than a year of the country’s war with Ukraine, even as support appears to be waning slightly for the invaded nation, according to findings from the 2023 U.S. News Best Countries survey."[1]

But the picture is not black and white. Russia also has a long history of being invaded by outside forces and this hyper-defensiveness may be part of their collective psychology, resulting in aggression.

HISTORY OF INVASIONS

  • In 1223, the Mongols invaded and began to conquer and rule over Russia for over two centuries. The Mongol Golden Horde ruled over Russia for centuries, but was defeated by the Russian army led by Prince Dmitry Donskoy in the Battle of Kulikovo in 1380. By 1480, the last of the Mongols were gone.
  • In 1242, the Teutonic Knights, a Germanic military order, invaded Russia and were defeated by Alexander Nevsky, a prince of Novgorod.
  • In 1605, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth invaded Russia during the Time of Troubles, a period of political and social upheaval, lasting until 1618.
  • In 1812, Napoleon Bonaparte invaded Russia with a Grand Army of over 600,000 soldiers. The invasion ended in disaster for the French, with only 100,000 soldiers returning home a few years later.
  • On 22 June 1941, Adolph Hitler invaded the Soviet Union during World War II, leading to one of the deadliest conflicts in human history.
    The invasion resulted in significant casualties on both sides. According to German Army medical reports, the Germans suffered over 1 million casualties, while the Soviet Union suffered even greater losses, with over 4.5 million military casualties. The Germans began their retreat in January 1942, and the last German troops left Soviet territory in 1944.

In the Putin era, since 2000, Russia has been increasingly assertive in defending its interests and borders. Putin has argued that Russia has the right to defend itself against perceived threats, both internal and external. In recent years, Russia has been involved in conflicts in Ukraine and Syria, which it has justified as necessary to protect its national security.

In this regard, Putin has long singled out for criticism NATO's eastward expansion, which he sees as a threat to Russia’s security. Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its support for separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine have been controversial, with many countries condemning Russia’s actions as a violation of international law. However, Putin has argued that Russia was simply protecting the rights of ethnic Russians in Ukraine and that the annexation of Crimea was necessary to prevent NATO from expanding further eastward.

Indeed, NATO has been expanding eastward. Putin claims it is doing so in violation of earlier assurances by US leaders that it would not do so. It is clear that NATO has been cooperating with Ukraine since the early 1990s and the latest development is that Ukraine has been cleared to join the defense alliance once the current hostilities end. The EU has also been intimidating that Ukraine could become a member since 2002. On February 28, 2022, Ukraine formally applied, with the EU further clearing its path for membership since.
Putin is also focused on preserving Russia's national customs, especially language and religion. It is often forgotten that Russia is on a civilizational path that is different from that of the West.[2] Putin claims the West has become a cesspool of loose morality. He fails to recognize the progress for freedom of people to be as they wish, that it truly represents.
But more importantly, Putin is furious over the West's reluctance to cede to it the territories it has taken from Ukraine, thwarting Russia's ambitions.
Today, the following Russian war propaganda arrives:
"In #Russia, Kremlin’s propaganda released a short animation showing a Russian nuclear strike on the #US, with devastation of American cities including San Francisco and New York City. Kremlin’s wet dreams about the world they want to live in." [see video here]

 

BELLIGERENCE TOWARDS NEIGHBOURS

During the Putin era, Russia has become an increasingly belligerent actor on the world stage, with the treats far exceeding those made by the country's leaders during the Soviet Era and the immediate post-Soviet years (1917-2000).
Here are four aggressive steps Putin has taken to annex territories in neighbouring states.
  • In 2008, Russia and Georgia fought a brief war over the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which Russia later recognized as independent states
  • In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine, a move that was widely condemned by the international community
  • In 2015, Russia established a military base in Armenia, a country that has a long-standing territorial dispute with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region
  • In 2022, Russia illegally annexed four Ukrainian regions, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, despite major battlefield reversals in recent days shrinking the amount of seized territory Moscow controls

But that is not all, Putin and his proxies are busy making claims on other territories.
  • In September 2022, former President Dmitry Medvedev, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, warned that any weapons in Moscow’s arsenal, including strategic nuclear weapons, could be used to defend territories incorporated into Russia.
  • In September 2022, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said hat regions of Ukraine where widely-criticized referendums are being held will be under Moscow’s “full protection” if they are annexed, raising the prospect of the use of nuclear weapons if Kyiv tries to retake those territories.
  • In February 2023, Ramzan Kadyrov, a key ally of Putin, suggested that Russia should “denazify and demilitarize” Poland next after Ukraine.
  • In August 2023, Putin suggested that the Baltic states should become Russian protectorates.
  • In October 2023, an official in the Ukrainian region which Moscow claims to have annexed said Russia should try to take territory that was formerly part of the Russian Empire “through the might” of weapons. He also suggested that Russia should have its eye on the Baltic states, as well as Poland and Finland, all five of which are NATO countries


GROWING RISK OF NUCLEAR WAR

Putin has also steadily been preparing to use his nuclear weapons as a last resort. Here are eight specific actions he has taken so far in this regard.
  • In 2000, Putin signed the Federal Law on the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence, which established the legal framework for the use of nuclear weapons
  • In 2007, Putin announced that Russia would suspend its participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty, which limits the deployment of conventional military forces in Europe
  • In 2008, Russia and the United States signed the New START Treaty, which limits the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles
  • In 2014, Putin signed a law suspending Russia’s participation in the Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement, which aimed to dispose of weapons-grade plutonium
  • In 2018, Putin unveiled a new array of nuclear weapons, including a hypersonic missile, that he claimed could evade US missile defenses .
  • In 2019, Putin suspended Russia’s participation in the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) after the US withdrew from the treaty.
  • In 2022, Putin announced that Russia had developed a new hypersonic missile capable of evading US missile defenses .
  • On October 5, 2023, Putin claimed that Russia had successfully tested a nuclear-powered cruise missile and warned that lawmakers could revoke its ratification of a global nuclear test ban.
  • On November 2, 2023, Putin signed into law Russia withdrawing its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), a global treaty banning nuclear weapons tests. The move was condemned by the US and the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization. Putin revokes Russian ratification of global nuclear test ban treaty.

Putin is also scaring Western leaders. According to a report by LBC, Russian President Putin made a chilling reference to the nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki during a conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron in November 2022.[3] Putin is said to have alarmed Macron by suggesting that the 1945 atom bomb was proof “you don’t have to launch nuclear strike on a major city to win a war”. Diplomatic sources said that Putin’s remarks sounded like a very heavy hint that he might detonate a tactical nuclear weapon in the east of Ukraine, while leaving Kyiv intact.
Putin has also previously warned that if Western forces endangered the “integrity” of Russian territory then he would “certainly use all the means at our disposal”. Likely, this is because the Russian economy is far smaller than its western counterparts, and all it has is the threat of using nuclear weapons if it's resources are not up to the challenge, and it finds itself losing ground in a war it started.

ASTROLOGY OF THE COMING HALF YEAR

The transits and period influences in the SAMVA Russian Federation chart show grave difficulty for Russia in the coming year. Currently, the Ketu-Jupiter period is operating, with transit 6th lord Jupiter retrograde at 17° Aries and 10th house, under applying aspect from Rahu at 16° Sagittarius and 6th house. It is suggestive of conflict involving close neighbours, where Russia uses misinformation to achieve its goals. This aspect will reoccur in the Spring of 2024, but then with a host of other even more challenging aspects. Hence, the situation is expected to get even more difficult for Russia and, by default, its neighbours.

Any authentic horoscope of a nation suggests tendencies for the nation, specifically its leaders, to undertake certain actions that come with reactions. It is worrying to think about what the Russia's leader may find himself karmically compelled to do at that time, given the aggression seen in the horoscope for the Russian Federation, and in view of Russia's nuclear stockpile and advanced delivery systems.

Let's hope for the best.


REFERENCES

[1] Elliott Davis Jr. (2023). "Survey: Russia Rates Highest as a Threat to the World, Half See U.S. as a Global Danger". U.S. News & World Report. Sept. 7, 
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2023-09-07/russia-rates-highest-as-threat-to-the-world-half-see-u-s-as-global-danger
[2] Ravi Batra (1978). Downfall of Communism and Capitalism: A New Study of History. MacMillan, London. 
[3Emma Soteriou (2022). "Putin 'makes chilling Hiroshima nuclear threat' during call with Macron".  LBC, London. 6 November. 
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/putin-hiroshima-nuclear-threat-macron/

Sunday, October 29, 2023

Republic of Türkiye

Türkiye is situated at the crossroads of Europe and Asia and has a rich and complex history that spans thousands of years, from its origins as a center of early civilization to its modern status as a regional power. 

Türkiye's modern political development has been marked by a transition from Ottoman rule to a secular republic under Mustafa Kemal Atatürk's leadership in the 1920s. The country adopted a Western-oriented, secular constitution, embracing democratic principles. However, it faces significant challenges due to its unique geographic and cultural position, straddling both the Muslim world and the West. Key challenges include maintaining a balance between secularism and religious influences, managing its independence-striving Kurdish minority issue, navigating regional conflicts, and preserving democratic institutions in a politically polarized environment. Striking this balance remains essential for Turkey to fulfill its potential as a bridge between East and West.

As for its Western aspirations, it is a NATO member and an applicant for membership in the EU. Simultaneously, it is engaged in the affairs of the tumultuous Middle East, necessitating a delicate balance between its Western commitments and emerging Middle Eastern engagements.

A History That Stretches Into The Hoary Past

Over time, Türkiye has been shaped by a diverse array of cultures, religions, and political forces. It has existed under many names. Anatolia is one of the oldest names for the region, deriving from the Greek word "Anatole," meaning "east" or "sunrise." It has been used for millennia to refer to the Asian part of modern-day Türkiye. It was known in Greek and Roman times as Asia Minor. The name, also of Greek origin, was commonly used by ancient Greeks and Romans to describe the western part of Anatolia. It was also known as the Byzantine Empire during the Roman Empire. However, upon its division, the eastern half became the Byzantine Empire, with its capital in Byzantium, later known as Constantinople (modern-day Istanbul). It was also referred to as the Eastern Roman Empire due to its continuity with the Roman Empire. Following the conquest by the Ottoman Turks, who migrated to Anatolia in the 13th century, they established one of history's most powerful empires, the Ottoman Empire, encompassing Anatolia, Southeastern Europe, and the Middle East. Following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire after World War I, the region was briefly known as the Asia Minor Republic before the establishment of the modern entity, the Republic of Turkey. In 1923, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk founded the new entity, adopting the name the Republic of Turkey to emphasize the nation's new beginning, distinct from its imperial and Ottoman past. In 2022, the spelling of the name was changed from Turkey to Türkiye.

The amazing discovery of Göbekli Tepe is reshaping views of Anatolia in a profound way. This archaeological site, located in southeastern Türkiye, challenges conventional beliefs about the region's history. Built around 9600 BCE, it predates Stonehenge and the Egyptian pyramids, making it one of the world's oldest known religious structures. The discovery has forced scholars to reconsider the capabilities of ancient societies, as it suggests a level of social organization and architectural sophistication previously underestimated. Additionally, it implies that complex religious and symbolic rituals existed much earlier than previously thought

Horoscope for the New Nation

Turkey's Lausanne Conference delegation
In April 2017, a likely authentic horoscope for Türkiye was proposed by astrologer and author, Jayant Kalawar on SAMVA list on Groups Io. It has Virgo rising, an earthy, analytical and adaptable sign. The event he considered was the signing of the Treaty of Lausanne on July 24, 1923, in Lausanne, Switzerland. 

This time precedes the founding of the secular republic, which happened on October 29 of that same year. Its importance lies in the act of constituting a new nation. The republican form of government, as embodied in a new constitution, is different. According to the late V. K. Choudhry, the preceptor of Systems' Approach astrologers, a new constitution is not as important as the founding of a nation, in terms of giving birth to the collective entity.

This treaty had momentous implications, as it officially ended the state of war between the Allied Powers and the Ottoman Empire, which had been ongoing since World War I. The treaty then redefined the borders of modern-day Turkey and established the boundaries of several neighboring countries. It also recognized the sovereignty of the new Republic of Turkey, led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, and marked the end of the Ottoman Empire.

Jayant Kalawar chose the time 11:30 a.m. giving 18° Virgo rising. However, further work relocating the event to the pre-capital city of Ankara, which is 2 hours ahead, resulted in adjusting the time to 11:15 a.m. there, to yield 25° Virgo rising. The range of possible ascending degrees is likely bookended by these degrees. Further observation is needed to clarify the exact degree. The 25° Virgo rising degree is easier, however, as it moves the nodes out of the MEP in malefic houses, which otherwise brings more serious problems under nodal period and transit duress. 

The 25° Virgo rising chart suggests the final agreement on the Treaty was reached at 9:15 a.m. in Lausanne. There are reports that the chief representative of Türkiye in Lausanne, Ismet İnönü (center of front row in photo), telephoned Mustafa Kemal Atatürk in Ankara that morning to inform him of the signal event. In any event, a late Virgo rising chart has shown promise in prediction since. 


Republic of Türkiye
11:15 a.m. on July 24th 1923 
Ankara, Türkiye
25° Virgo rising


Jayant Kalwar's rationale was as follows:
"1. The proposed chart with Virgo Ascendant is currently in Saturn / Saturn period. 6th lord Saturn is in the Ascendant. Its general signification is of leadership by the non-elite is borne out by the result, while at the same time the 6th lord signification of disharmony in body politic (due to its placement in Ascendant).
2. Further, current transit Saturn is currently under:
- affliction by the 8th aspect of transit most malefic planet (MMP) Mars
and
- influence of 5th aspect of transit Rahu.

This indicates obstructions and confusions to the non-elite leadership represented by Saturn."

 

Authoritarian leader and weak currency

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is the President of Turkey since 2014. He is considered as something of an authoritarian ruler, by repressing his political opponents. As such, he also enjoys a strong position to push eclectic economic policies, such as keeping interest rates low for too long. Clearly, Erdogan was trying to engineer faster growth before the election in 2023, but reaped a rapid depreciation of the lira and horrendous inflation. 

Fact: In the past 10 years, the Turkish lira has fallen from 0.5 lira to the dollar to 0.03 lira. In other words, in 2013 it took two lira to buy one US dollar. In 2023, the price has gone up to 33 lira! 

In Systems' Approach astrology, the Sun and Moon become general indicators for currency strength. The Sun, in particular, signifies the power of the state and the leader. For Virgo ascending countries, 2nd lord Venus and 11th lord Moon are also important. 

The Sun, as 12th lord of losses afflicts 1st lord Mercury in the 11th house of income and aspirations. Moreover, Saturn as 6th lord, is in the most effective point (MEP) of the 1st house. This gives an obstinacy of views. This is more so as Saturn afflicts 11th lord Moon in the 3rd house of enterprise, communication and transportation. Saturn also afflicts 2nd lord Venus in the MEP of the 10th house. This suggests Turkey has good and prominent status in world affairs, but that it is way too emphatic in its assertions. 

Deadly 2023 Turkey–Syria earthquake

"On 6 February 2023, at 04:17 TRT (01:17 UTC), a Mw 7.8 earthquake struck southern and central Turkey and northern and western Syria. The epicenter was 37 km west–northwest of Gaziantep. The earthquake had a maximum Mercalli intensity of XII (Extreme) around the epicenter and in Antakya. It was followed by a Mw 7.7 earthquake at 13:24. This earthquake was centered 95 km (59 mi) north-northeast from the first." There was widespread damage and almost sixty thousand people perished with twice that many injured."

There are numerous connections in  the 25° Virgo rising chart for Turkey suggestive of this. First is the affliction of Ketu in the 6th house to 4th lord Jupiter in the 2nd house. Second, there is an affliction involving the 8th lord Mars to both 1st lord Mercury in the 11th house and 4th lord Jupiter in the 2nd house. So, both these conditions are satisfied in this chart.

The Saturn - Mercury period was operating at the time. Transit Ketu was conjunct 4th lord Jupiter in the  2nd house. Transit 2nd lord Venus was conjunct natal Ketu in the 6th house. Transit 8th lord Mars was in the 9th house from where it aspected natal Rahu in the 12th house and natal 11th lord Moon was in the 3rd house. Transit 12th lord Sun was afflicting the 5th, 11th house MEPs, as well as transit 11th lord Moon. Finally, transit 4th lord Jupiter was in the 7th house in aspect to natal 8th lord Mars in the 11th house. In short, the bases were loaded.

2016 Turkish coup d'état attempt

Another important event happened on July 15th, 2016, when a faction within the Turkish Armed Forces, organized as the Peace at Home Council, attempted a coup d'état against state institutions, including the government and president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. They attempted to seize control of several places in Ankara, Istanbul, Marmaris and elsewhere, such as the Asian side entrance of the Bosphorus Bridge, but failed to do so after forces loyal to the state defeated them. The Council cited an erosion of secularism, elimination of democratic rule,[ disregard for human rights, and Turkey's loss of credibility in the international arena as reasons for the coup. The government said the coup leaders were linked to the Gülen movement, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the Republic of Turkey and led by Fethullah Gülen, a Turkish businessman and scholar who lives in Pennsylvania. The Turkish government alleged that Gülen was behind the coup (which Gülen denied) and that the United States was harboring him. Events surrounding the coup attempt and the purges in its aftermath reflect a complex power struggle between Islamist elites in Turkey.

The Jupiter - Rahu period was operating. Rahu is an indicator of manipulation and deceit. Moreover, transit Rahu was conjunct natal Rahu in the 12th house -- the Rahu transit-to-natal return - one of the most painful aspects. Transit 6th lord Saturn was in the 3rd house in aspect to natal and transit Rahu in the 12th house. Tr 1st lord Mercury and transit 2nd lord Venus were conjunct 12th lord Sun in the 11th house. Transit 12th lord Sun was in old age in the 10th house. Finally, transit 6th lord Saturn was in the MEP of the 1st house, in aspect to natal 2nd lord Venus in the 10th house MEP. 

Challenging period and transit combination ahead

In the late Spring or early Summer of 2024, the dual malefic period of Saturn - Ketu will be operating. This is difficult as Ketu afflicts Jupiter in the chart, suggesting setbacks for the borders or status of the country. This period is made more difficult as a number of malefic transit-to-natsl aspects are seen at that time that will be challenging for the country:

  1.  A transit nodal station will form over natal 6th lord Saturn in the 1st house MEP, with transit Ketu conjunct, suggesting conflict involving sudden, serious and explosive developments, that adversely impact the image of the country.
  2. Transit 6th lord Saturn will become conjunct natal Ketu in the 6th house. This has much the same result, but is more focused on areas of conflict.
With triple such influences at work (including the period combination), a sudden explosive event associated with conflict should be regarded as very likely if this chart is indeed authentic. 

Moreover, as 6th lord Saturn is involved, financial stability and health matters also become important. Meanwhile, Ketu's manifold aspects suggest a separative or isolating influence is involved. This time early next year offers a good predictive test of the authenticity of this chart.

Finally, around April 4th, the Sun, as 12th lord, and general indicator of the leader of the nation, will be in the 7th house, ruling foreign affairs, where it becomes conjunct transit stationary Rahu and opposite natal 6th lord Saturn. A few days later, transit 8th lord Mars will become conjunct Ketu and transit 6th lord Saturn in the 6th house. It is quite possible, in addition to the problems mentioned above, that there may also be change of government at that time. 

Happy Centennial Birthday, Türkiye!!

The Turkish people have made invaluable contributions to the world throughout history, leaving an indelible mark on various fields. Their rich culture, blending Eastern and Western influences, has given birth to exquisite art, captivating music, and delicious cuisine. In science, the groundbreaking work of Turkish scholars has advanced our understanding of medicine, mathematics, and astronomy. The Turkish spirit of hospitality and unity shines through their ability to bridge cultures and build lasting friendships. As a nation at the crossroads of continents, they have historically facilitated trade, dialogue, and cooperation. The Turkish people's enduring legacy is a testament to the power of cultural diversity, innovation, and the strength of the human spirit.

This year is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Republic of Türkiye and there is reason to be hopeful for this very special and important nation going forward. It's continued success is important for Europe, the Middle East and the world.