Saturday, February 2, 2008

More financial market volatility in 2008

As successfully predicted on the SAMVA list on January 1, 2008 and reported on this blog the global financial markets again became highly volatile during the month of January. Share prices plunged around the planet. US and global financial markets are expected to remain volatile in 2008 due to ongoing adverse transits in the SAMVA USA chart .

The authorities quickly responded
The tremors became so sharp that the US central bank, the Federal Reserve Board, decided at a special meeting in mid January to reduce its policy interest rate by 75 basis points and then nine days later to cut it another 50 points, to 3%. Meanwhile, President Bush wasted no time in getting the hostile Democrat-controlled US House of Congress to approve a $150 billion stimulus spending package for this year. Such developments reflect the seriousness with which policy makers view the ongoing problems in financial markets as well as their steadfast intention to avoid an outright economic recession.

The adverse transits of January 2008
The stock market turbulence accelerated in early January when the aspect of transit Rahu in the 8th house of the SAMVA USA char to transit 10th lord Mars in the 12th house became close. The rout peaked, however, on January 21, 2008 when the trinal aspect of 6th lord Jupiter in Sagittarius to 8th lord Saturn in Leo became exact.
The problems erupted in 2007
On March 2, 2007 the New York Times asked: “What is bothering investors? No one thing in particular and yet everything.” The article goes on to say “From a slowing American economy to a faltering mortgage market and the tightening of historically easy credit, a caldron of concerns has been bubbling up over the last year and appears to have set off the wave of selling that rocked world financial markets this week.”

The graph shows the twists and turns of the Dow Jones Industrial Average share price index since January 2007, with annotation to explain what it was at each time that disturbed the market and also what transits were at work in the SAMVA USA chart, where these developments have broadly but consistently been predicted.

Stock market prognosticators of two minds
At the beginning of February 2008, some stock market analysts began to suggest the worst was over for the stock market. The long term market observer Richard Russell now sees the recent stunning advance of the Dow Jones Transportation Index as time-tested confirmation of the stock market having found a ‘bottom’ with a recovery ahead. Moroever, he has now changed from a bearish to a non-bearish view, as the data has improved. This is because he is a follower of the data and does not pretend to be a consistent predictor of the market. He prefers to change his view if the incoming data no longer confirms an earlier expectation.
Others are not so sure the market has hit bottom. A more bearish stock market analyst is Michael Jenkins. He warns of a possible drop in February 2008 but suggests this could be followed by a rally in March 2008. However, as he sees an ongoing bear market he thinks the market could again hit the skids later in the year.

Both analysts are saying pretty much what Professor Choudhry has predicted based on the Systems’ Approach (SA). Mr. Russell is confirming what was predicted on the SAMVA list at the beginning of the year that the month of January would be especially bad for the stock market. This prediction was based on the application of SA Vedic astrology to the SAMVA USA chart. Mr. Jenkins prediction going forward is more in line with the prediction by Professor Choudhry based on the aspect of stationary Rahu in Aquarius and 8th house to Mars in Gemini and 12th house in the chart becoming close again in February (exact on the 25th). While not as difficult as the aspects in January, we can expect some more "shakes" in the month of February. Moreover, as predicted earlier on this blog, there are a number of difficult aspects ahead for the US economy and financial market this year based on the SAMVA USA chart, suggesting continued volatility. In fact, Professor Choudhry has predicted on SAMVA that continued volatility is to be expected in financial markets this year due to transit afflictions in the SAMVA USA chart suggesting ongoing recession concerns will be the primary disturbance of market sentiment.

Transit aspects in the SAMVA USA chart in 2008
The main aspects in 20° Cancer rising SAMVA USA chart in 2008 certainly suggest more volatility ahead, although the financial stability should not be at risk, as the present sub-period lord in the chart, Jupiter, is strong in its own sign of Sagittarius, even if it is the 6th house of the chart.

February: transit stationary Rahu in Aquarius H8 aspect L10 Mars in Gemini H12. The volatility on the market is having an effect to unnerve investors, ruled inter alia by Mars as the planet of courage. Mercury as 3rd lord in the chart is influential in this regard but it cannot overcome the influence of the affliction to Mars, even when strong in transit. Another difficult transit involves 6th lord Jupiter in the 6th house being aspected by natal malefic Rahu in the 10th house. This aspect becomes exact on February 10.

March: transit Jupiter conjunct natal L4 Venus as 23° 54' Sagittarius H6. This aspect is likely to bring conflict that disturbs communal harmony and may again arouse concerns about loan losses in the housing market.

May: transit Mars out of H12, This aspect is very helpful as investor confidence should improve at this time, barring other adverse influences.

June: transit Ketu in Cancer H1 aspects natal L8 Saturn at 26° 46' Scorpio H5. This aspect could bring some short lived sudden setback to easy gains.

July: transit Jupiter conjunct natal L4 Venus as 23° 54' Sagittarius H6. This is the second of three such conjunctions during the year, disturbing communal harmony and raising concerns about the housing market.

July-September: transit nodal station at 24° 34' Capricorn and Cancer conjunct natal L2 Sun at 23° 44' Capricorn H7. This transit is a biggie. It will bring serious difficulty for the US President. There may be conflict or crisis involving foreign policy matters.
August-September: transit Jupiter at 18° Sagittarius H6 aspects transit Saturn at 18° Leo H2. This aspect, which takes place in the most effective point of the SAMVA USA chart, is expected to bring renewed volatility in financial markets. There could also be acts of violence.

August-September: natal Rahu at 18° Aries aspects transit Jupiter and Saturn. This transit is linked to the above aspect, making it worse. It suggests a crisis surrounding manipulation in order to obtain easy gains. Leaders in the financial industry, judicial system or religious institutions may face a difficult time.

November: transit Jupiter conjunct natal L4 Venus as 23° 54' Sagittarius H6. This is the third and final incidence of this aspect during the year bringing conflict that disturbs the communal harmony and raises concerns about the housing market. This aspect is aggravated by the following aspect which happens about the same time.
November: transit Jupiter in Sagittarius H6 aspects transit Saturn at 26° Leo H2. This aspect is expected to bring fresh volatility in financial markets, also in view of the next aspect which begins at this time.

November 2008 until February 2009: transit Saturn in Leo H2 under aspect of natal Saturn in Scorpio H5. This aspect threatens a serious setback to easy gains and other indications of Saturn.

December: transit L6 Jupiter enters Capricorn H7. While moving into a good house, the 7th house, the financial stability of the USA is expected to weaken as Jupiter is debilitated (has half strength only) in this sign. However, the problems are not likely to become pressing until Jupiter enters Aquarius and the 8th house in late 2009, when the Saturn sub-period will be running.

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