A leader for peace

In a recent article on CNN, Angela Dewan declares that "America's role as global leader all but died under Trump". It is a common presumption of Democrats that Trump's foreign policy of "retreat" has effectively ended the USA's position as a "unipolar" superpower in the world. The position was gained with the fall of Soviet Communism 30 years ago, but in recent years Russia and China have increasingly asserted their power. As a result, the USA is no longer seen as the single superpower. Moreover, its leadership position in the world is now also being brought into question. Such a conclusion seems to be at jarring odds with the historical trajectory as well as major works that survey the history but also explore American's impetus for greatness, whether pragmatic or idealistic. Cases in point are Carroll Quigley's Tragedy and Hope (1966), Henry Kissinger's Diplomacy (1994), John Steele Gordon's An Empire of Wealth (2004), George Herring's From Colony to Superpower (2008), or Daniel Immerwahr's How to Hide an Empire (2019).

In this article, mundane horoscopic astrology, as applied to the national horoscope for the USA, is brought into the picture, to leverage off its insights. The method is to include a historical analysis of the 120 year Vimsottari cycle of major periods in the SAMVA USA horoscope. In doing so, it hopefully becomes clearer how an examination of the surface of the ocean may overlook currents traveling long distances below the surface only to crest suddenly. 

References are made to insights developed in dozens of articles on this blog. Importantly, the analysis shows that it is helpful to recognise the strengths and weaknesses of potentialities in the national psyche that arise in different periods. Transits in combination with sub-periods within the major periods, result in highly irregular cycles, that however reveal an amazing pattern when surveyed over a sufficiently long stretch of history. In other words, as the great Mark Twain is said to have observed, "history does not repeat itself, but it rhymes."

The USA is now in its third Sun major period (2016-2022), so it is fitting that we start the analysis with an overview of the second Sun major period (1896-1902), as themes at that time are expected to reappear at the present time. An analysis of earlier periods may be seen here.

In 1896, William McKinley was elected President, serving until his assassination in September 1901, when Theodore Roosevelt, then Vice President, continued with his second term and went on to serve one more term. The massive realignment of the policies from the preceding Gilded Age to what has now been called the Progressive Era, but also his display of manly virtues, made Roosevelt a beloved figure in the pantheon of Great American Presidents. 

A remarkable change also took place in foreign policy, as described by Kissinger (1994):

"Until early in [the 20th] century, the isolationist tendency prevailed in American foreign policy. Then, two factors projected America into world affairs: its rapdily expanding power, and the gradual collapse of the international system centered in Europe. Two watershed presidencies marked this progression: Theodore Roosevelt's and Woodrow Wilson's. Both recognised that America had a crucial role to play in world affairs though they justified its emergence from isolation with opposite philosophies." 

The USA won the Spanish-American War of 1898 and gained a global reach. The war was waged on ethical grounds, to lift the burden of colonial exploitation. Indeed, as President McKinley declared in the 1900 election: 

"The USA has not planted its flag on foreign soil for its own sake, but for humanity's sake." 

McKinley issued the "Open Door" policy on equal access of all trading nations with China, which "stands as one of the most important policy statements ever issued by the U.S. State Department" (Lewis Gould's The Presidency of William McKinley, 1981). It ended the international scramble in the 1890s for 'spheres of influence' in the country.

Protective tariffs in the USA were also raised, heralding a boom in industrial production, which in the coming years increasingly diversified from the earlier and heavy reliance on steel, petroleum and railroads (Gordon Steele, 2008). As a result, employment and living standards rose in the cities, while prices remained stable following the adoption of the Gold Standard. 

President Roosevelt pursued a protectionist trade policy, but he also projected American power based on his assessment that America was needed to balance the power in the world.

In the Moon period (1902-1912) the battle against monopolies accelerated, making Roosevelt famous as a "Trust buster." Independent journalists, so-called muckrakers, aided Roosevelt's effort to win public support for the reforms, overcoming the opposition of the Hearst press and Rockerfeller's minions (Doris Kearns Goodwin's The Bully Pulpit: Theodore Roosevelt, William Howard Taft and the Golden Age of Journalism, 2013). 

In the Mars period (1912-1919), Henry Ford revolutionised automobile production and, following Wilson's initiative, the USA joined the allies to defeat Germany in WW 1. The importance of the military is also seen in the prior Mars period, when George Washington was brought out of retirement in 1794 to lead a military force to end the Whiskey Rebellion and thus assert the full taxing power of the Federal government.

In the Rahu period (1919-1937), corruption and misunderstandings in the national life came to light. The period began with USA enjoying its WW 1 success, followed by President Harding being charged with corruption. A battle opened up between religious and secular forces, that led to a prohibition, which in turn gave rise to criminal activity of the Mafia. Growing imbalances in the economy and financial system caused a pronounced boom and then a burst, resulting in the Great Depression of the 1930s. The depression led to a painful contraction of US foreign trade as tariffs were raised. The poverty created bank robbers that became idolised. As Quiqley (1966) points out, the international system that evolved from 1919 to 1929 proved faulty and the world wide depression saw it break down quickly as anti-democratic strong men rose to power in some European countries.

In the Jupiter major period (1937-1953) the "isolated" USA was gradually pulled into WW 2 in order to safeguard the world, first against fascism and then against communism. The Pax Brittannica was replaced by Pax America as international organisations settled their headquarters in the USA. The USA became the hegemon for the free world, expressed through its leadership of the free world in United Nations bodies, notably the IMF/World Bank.

As the Saturn major period (1953-1972) rolled around, a deadly nuclear stand-off had developed between the Soviet Union and the USA, peaking in the Cuban Missile crisis of 1962, and ending with the Vietnam War of 1964-1973. John F. Kennedy, who inspired his countrymen to greatness, was assassinated in 1963. The USA bested the Soviets in the "Space race," by landing men on the Moon and bringing them safely back to earth from 1969 to 1972.

In the Mercury major period (1972-1989) several developments occurred that resulted in the collapse of soviet style communism, notably technological changes, supply-side revolution, market liberalisation, increased commercial relationship of the USA with China, and de-industrialisation in the USA. The top-heavy, illiberal, and militarily expensive Soviet Union wanted in on the party with "Glasnost" and "Perestroika," but the move collapsed the regime under its own oppressive weight in 1989-1990. 

In the Ketu major period (1989-1996), the most painful placement in the SAMVA USA chart, the USA experienced relative isolation as a super-power and hegemon of the international system of commerce and finance, with its dominant military system. This has been described as a "unipolar" moment in history. With this system, which had developed in the cold war, the US had a responsibility to run trade and budget deficits (from the mid 1980s) that provided liquidity (US dollars) to the rest of the world. It also spent its "treasure and blood" by stationing troops abroad and fighting local wars as the "world's policeman". Race relations experienced a new nadir, expressed in violent race riots. Alarming terrorist attacks took place against the country.

In the Venus major period (1996-2016), the weakest planet in the SAMVA USA chart, the focus shifted to the unhappiness of Americans with foreign wars, notably the Iraq war of 2003 and then dealing with a resurgent islamo-fascism, bankrolled by Iran. At the same time, inequality grew and a huge housing bubble burst, that would have collapsed the banking system if the government had not indebted itself to save it. There was pronounced corruption involved, as Rahu aspects the 6th house. The USA was allowed to bleed through foreign trade deficits, defense expenditures and illegal immigration, in a sense by becoming the world, rather than being a constructive force in the world.

In the Sun major period (2016-2022) a dynamic leader arrived as predicted and began to clean house. While the Coronavirus pandemic has been huge setback for the USA in 2020, Trump has re-energised the US economy with tax cuts and deregulation and this is resulting in a resurgence in economic activity. Tariffs on China are reducing the trade deficit. He has worked to close down the illegal immigration. It harmed millions of ordinary Americans while the corporate sponsored elite in Washington D.C. blossomed. 

Trump has shifted more of the burden of the international financial system and defense spending on other thriving economies. He is working to reduce the US international deficits and debts, through revised trade and defense agreements. He has also avoided the "victim" mentality of prior periods, where everybody is defined as a transgressor or victim. Instead, he has focused on reviving the American spirit of success, and a "winner" mentality. The nation is to be united through shared success.

In the meantime, the US foreign policy is aimed at preserving freedom in the world by pushing back on expansionist (China, Russia) or rouge actors (Iran, North Korea), while helping oppressed nations (Israel, Taiwan). Trump has pulled the USA out of the globalist NAFTA accord, the Paris Environment Treaty, the Trans Pacific Partnership Trade deal, etc. because he considered them not to be in the interest of the American people. He has renegotiated better deals, like the USMCA trade agreement. In this sense, there has been a resurgence of US power at home and abroad. He has criticised EU leaders for failing their people and destroying the Single Market project, resulting in e.g. Brexit and the eastern EU block closing its borders. Trump has confounded his critics and advanced the cause of peace in the Middle East, Korean Peninsula and the Balkans. All told, the USA has a stronger and more credible voice than before. Independent journalists have rallied around Trump, such as Glenn Greenwald, Tucker Carlson, Steve Hilton and news sites like Breitbart and One American Network News. They help to counter the corporate propaganda of CNN, Washington Post, New York Times, The Atlantic, etc.

Conclusion

Donald Trump has adopted an America First policy, limiting the hegemonic role of the USA for the international commercial and finance system. He has also pulled the US out of foreign wars, where possible, while constraining the ability of rouge states to wage war. He has also remained invested in establishing peace and a viable global order. This resonates strongly with the foreign policy of William McKinley and Theodore Roosevelt.

Trump is derided by his political opponents at home and abroad. Yet he is likely to win reelection a few days from now, because he is popular among the people. He is unpopular in Europe due to his fearlessness in speaking up about their unfair burden sharing practices of the common defense (NATO). To equate this with USA having less power or influence in the world, does not hold up to scrutiny. The USA is no longer taken for granted, but it is far from being inactive or ignored. In fact, Trump has shown decisive leadership in all parts of the world in a far more effective way than his predecessors. In short, he is in the McKinley-Roosevelt tradition of preserving a balance of the international order. In doing so, he may not "speak softly" but he does "carry a big stick."